The Data for Progress poll, procured by For the Many, compared Mid-Hudson region likely Democratic primary voters’ opinions about a “candidate A” whose biography matches Sarahana Shrestha and a “candidate B” whose biography matches Kevin Cahill
In Ulster County, voters preferred candidate A by 52% to 41%. In Dutchess County, voters preferred candidate A by 53% to 27%
From May 23 to June 3, 2022, Data for Progress conducted a survey of the Mid-Hudson region of New York of 397 likely Democratic primary voters in Dutchess, Orange, and Ulster counties using SMS and web panel respondents. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely Democratic primary voters by age, gender, education, race, geography, and voting history. The survey was conducted in English. The margin of error is ±5 percentage points.
With the June Democratic primary election for New York’s 103rd Assembly district in mind, Data for Progress tested the favorability of candidate bios that match the biographies of challenger Sarahana Shrestha and incumbent Assemblyman, Kevin Cahill. Due to the fact that the 103rd district covers only a portion of the surveyed geography, the actual candidate names were substituted for hypothetical candidates “A” and “B” to measure attitudes towards Shrestha and Cahill, respectively, across the Mid-Hudson region.
The poll asked voters which of the two candidates they would vote for based on the biographies they had read of candidates A and B. Overall, Candidate A leads Candidate B among Mid-Hudson Democratic primary voters by +14-percentage points. Among Ulster county voters, Candidate A leads by +12-percentage points, and among Dutchess county voters, Candidate A leads by +26-percentage points with 21 percent of voters undecided.
While name recognition can have a large impact in head-to-head polling and the final outcome of the race – these results show that Candidate A’s biography, absent any name recognition effects either of the candidates might have, is extremely well received by voters compared to Candidate B.